Market analyst Simon Quilty tips beef prices to rise by four per cent as African Swine Fever takes hold world wide.
Beef has become the number one substitute for pork as the African Swine Fever outbreak sweeps across the globe.
Australian beef shipments to China last year increased by 50 per cent fuelled by the disease and this is expected to climb rapidly, kicking up prices by four per cent this year.
It will also impact Australian lamb and mutton exports into China, according to market analyst Simon Quilty.
Mr Quilty, of MLX Pty Ltd, described the outbreak as “unstoppable’’ and having the capability to change the global balance sheet for beef, pork, chicken, lamb and mutton for up to 20 years.
“This is the biggest game changer I’ve ever seen in my 30 years of meat trading,’’ he said.
Around 22 million pigs are estimated to have been slaughtered on the back of 105 confirmed outbreaks in China to February 15, with the national herd falling by five per cent in December compared to the previous January estimates.
The disease was first diagnosed in China on August 3 and was believed to have originated in Russia.
A guest speaker at the Pasture Agronomy Service conference in Wodonga, Mr Quilty estimated the Chinese national herd would fall 30 per cent over the next year as backyard pig operations were eradicated.
Mr Quilty said the disease caused 100 per cent mortality rates in domesticated pigs, and once an outbreak was confirmed, the affected province was placed on lock-down.
He said this had resulted in areas of over and under supply in pork, with pricing differences of up to 40 per cent in China.
African Swine Fever is spread on the hoof and also in the processed, frozen or cooked product which has seen the disease spread rapidly due to waste product fed by backyard pig operators.
Affected pork requires cooking at over 70 degrees Celsius over 30 minutes for the disease to be no longer effective.
It can survive in frozen meat for up to 1000 days, 18 months in blood stored at four degrees Celsius, 105 days in offal, 182 days in salted meat, and 110 days in chilled pork.
Pork is the number one meat produced globally at 120 million tonnes a year, with China having half the world’s pig population at 433 million.
The disease is now endemic through Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, and in recent days has been confirmed in Vietnam.
Mr Quilty said Chinese consumer demand for pork had fallen 14.4 per cent and this would equate to 8.34 million tonnes over a year should this continue across China, resulting in a tightening of global protein prices.
“Pork, beef, lamb and mutton prices will impact your farms for the next 10 to 20 years,’’ he said.
“A 1kg shift in per capita consumption from pork to beef in China equates to 1.4 million tonnes or Australia’s entire global beef exports for 2018.
“Global beef prices will rise this year by 4 per cent with China being the main driver of this.’’
Mr Quilty said biosecurity had been stepped up in Australia with elevated testing of all forms of meat being imported.
He said the 25 million feral pigs in Australia were potential carriers of the disease if it breached our national borders.
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Caption: Market analyst Simon Quilty tips beef prices to rise by four per cent as African Swine Fever takes hold world wide.
