Changed eating patterns due to the rising use of anti-obesity drugs, a shift towards in-home alcohol consumption and increasing demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers are among some of the top global trends in food and agri set to be felt in Australia in the next five years, according to a new series of podcasts from Rabobank.
In the podcast series – in which global strategists from the bank’s RaboResearch division examine the top trends “from farm to fork along the global supply chain for food and agriculture to 2030”– the global agribusiness banking specialist identifies a number of major macro factors set to impact right across the sector out to the end of the decade.
These include: changing trade dynamics due to potential tariffs and government policies, an ageing global population, rapid innovation and adoption of AI across the supply chain and a continuing focus on sustainability (with 2030 approaching as the deadline for a number of policy and corporate climate targets).
In addition, a large number of other global trends are seen emerging in – or continuing to drive – specific parts of the food and agri supply chain, says podcast host, RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel.
“These range from, at consumer level, the growing prevalence of people using anti-obesity medication in the US and some European and Asian countries – and the resulting changed diets that are impacting shopping baskets – through to, at farm level, the expected rapid growth in many regions of the use of ‘biologicals’, natural products that enhance crop growth,” he said.
Geopolitics, tariffs and trade dynamics
Mr Vogel said the impacts of geopolitics and potential new trade tariffs were expected to be increasingly felt across the global food and agribusiness supply chain in the next five years.
“Under another Trump presidency, or ‘Trump 2.0’, for many exporters dealing with the US, but also China, the threatened US import tariffs and potentially arising trade wars are major concern on the way to 2030,” he said.
“Companies around the globe that are exporting to the US may need to consider strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including options like lowering prices to maintain competitiveness in the US market or investing in local production facilities in the United States to avoid tariffs altogether,” he said.
“However, the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and trade policies makes it challenging for companies to make long-term business decisions. On the positive side though, a strong US dollar might mitigate some of the tariff impacts.”
Australia’s food and agri sector is closely watching developments, Mr Vogel said, “especially when it comes to beef, as in recent months the US has been importing more beef than Australia’s traditional major markets, such as Japan, South Korea or China”.
(AOMs) Anti-Obesity Medications
The use of so-called AOMs (anti-obesity medications) is already starting to have a discernible impact on the food industry in the US. And other countries – particularly in Europe and Asia – might follow suit.
Users of these medications tend to consume fewer calories and choose to eat different foods, Mr Vogel said.
This is particularly being seen in the United States – where the use of these medications, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, are more prevalent – but is expected to spread to other markets around the world, with AOMs predicted to become used by larger percentages of the population to control hunger to achieve weight loss and improve health, he said.
Mr Vogel said studies show users of AOMs often cut down their consumption of calorie -dense and processed foods while their grocery spend on nutrient rich and perceived healthy foods, like yoghurt and fresh produce, rises.
“Some call this trend ‘no-hunger games’ as these drugs reduce appetite, leading to a decrease in calorie intake and a shift away from sweet and high-calorie foods, and from alcohol, towards more protein-rich options,” he said. “While only a portion of the population will be using them, and not all users are on the drugs continuously, the impact on the consumption of sweet goods and alcohol could be more pronounced than on other categories.
“Conversely, the increased focus on protein intake that is noted when people are on this type of medication – to counteract muscle wastage and also because they tend to exercise more – means there is more demand for protein-rich foods.”
Drinking in
On the beverage side, there is a notable global trend identified in the consumption of alcohol at home rather than in bars and restaurants.
“This has been largely driven by inflation and the higher cost of food and beverages outside the home, with consumers electing to ‘eat and drink in’ instead,” Mr Vogel said.
“The consumption of food and beverages at home rather than in restaurants and bars is felt through the entire beverage supply chain, from producers to retailer,” he said.
Additionally, Mr Vogel said, there had been a decline in global per capita alcohol consumption overall, and particularly wine and beer. This was seen to be due to a combination of demographic change – with an ageing population drinking less and younger consumers “not necessarily as engaged in alcohol” – as well as a rise in the popularity of “competing products” such as hard seltzers, cocktails and likely even legal cannabis in some markets.
Dairy demographics
At the dairy counter, an ageing global population is expected to drive demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers, the agribusiness specialist says.
“As people age, they often seek out products that support their health and wellbeing, such as protein shakes and medical nutrition,” Mr Vogel said. “And this trend presents opportunities for the dairy industry to develop new products that cater to the needs of older consumers. This so-called ‘active silvers’ group of the population represents a growing category. China, for example, by 2030 is expected to have 100 million more people over the age of 55 than it did in 2020.”
In terms of dairy overall, the largest demand growth is seen in South-East Asia, Africa and other developing countries, Mr Vogel said, creating opportunities for dairy-exporting nations who potentially may struggle to keep up with this pace of demand growth through 2035.
AI
At farm level, autonomous machinery and AI (artificial intelligence) are transforming farming operations around the world, and this trend is expected to continue at speed in the coming five years, according to the RaboResearch podcast series.
Mr Vogel said the use of autonomous machinery – such as driverless helicopters and large drones for crop spraying, for example – was becoming more widespread, aided by AI. “And the food and agri sector is expected to continue to adopt various innovations, especially those that improve efficiency and deliver positive economic results,” he said.
“Labour-intense sectors like fresh produce are already using these technologies and are expected to further adopt them for tasks that can reduce manual labour like spraying, planting, harvesting, processing and packaging,” Mr Vogel said. “Other farming sectors are also expected to increasingly adopt these technologies where they can improve efficiency, reduce labour costs and enhance precision.”
‘Biologicals’
The on-farm usage of ‘biologicals’ is also expected to rise in the five years ahead. These natural products can enhance plant growth and health by improving nutrient uptake, pest resistance and soil health.
Mr Vogel said the usage of biologicals is expected to become more readily accepted in traditional farming and to be used in conjunction with other conventional farm inputs to enhance their effectiveness.
“For example, biologicals are being used alongside nitrogen fertiliser to help take up nitrogen out of the soil and fix it to the plant,” he said.
Mr Vogel said biopesticides derived from natural sources – such as bacteria and fungi – also had potential to control pests and diseases, with reduced impact on beneficial organisms and the environment.
Other trends
Among other top trends in food and agri to 2030 discussed in the podcast series were:
- the growing popularity of smaller, snack-sized fruit and vegetables (such as berries and cocktail tomatoes) and those with enhanced convenience qualities, including pre-cut vegetables and easy-peel fruit
- increasing use of sustainable packaging, such as recycled-moulded fibre and
- an even stronger role expected to be played by climate risk and mitigation in companies’ strategic and operational plans, including in diversified sourcing and business growth.
The RaboResearch Top 2030 Global Trends podcasts are available at RaboResearch Podcasts or search ‘RaboResearch’ in any major podcast app.