There are golden times ahead for the nation’s cattle producers with a “new norm” of 630c/kg liveweight for feeder steers next year as the markets enter a seven-year period of stability.
Market analyst Simon Quilty, Global AgriTrends, Wangaratta, delivered his price forecast out to 2028 at the Pasture Agronomy Service conference at Gundagai on March 10.
Mr Quilty forecast 2026 average prices to reach 630c/kg liveweight for feeder steers, 510c/kg LW for Jap Ox, 420c/kg LW for cows and for the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) to peak at 1277c/kg carcase weight.
This would be up on the strengthening 2025 prices of 490c/kg for feeder steers, 410c/kg for Jap Ox, 325c/kg for cows and an ECYI of 954c/kg carcase weight.
Prices have been tipped to remain elevated through 2027 but begin trending downwards in 2028 with feeder steers slipping 80c/kg LW as the national herd rebuild grinds to a halt.
Overall, the cattle market has recorded a 5 per cent fall in March due to Cyclone Alfred closing major ports, with Meat and Livestock Australia quoting yearling steers trading at 370c/kg, feeders averaging 356c/kg, heavy steers at 342c/kg, heifers 299c/kg and cows at 284c/kg.
Mr Quilty expects the market to move upwards in late April for feeder steers to 536c/kg by September.
“A good quality Angus feeder steer is 410-420c/kg liveweight today in the market and lot feeders are willing to pay 420-430c/kg now for forward cattle,” he said.
“In terms of cows, we are still talking around 440c/kg by the end of this year (up from 276c/kg in southern Queensland), driven by exceptional price levels for grinding meat at a time when we hit the herd rebuild.”
Mr Quilty has the nominal yearling carcase weight indicator entering a seven-year period of stable prices this year until 2032, off the back of a decade long transitory period when prices rose 35 per cent since 2015.
“Input costs have run ahead but by the start of 2027 to 2032, those input costs will be in line with your returns.”
Processing capacity in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland has risen to 3600 cattle per day, off the back of the herd liquidation for at least seven quarters.
The herd liquidation has resulted in a 60-80c/kg LW discount on heifers relative to feeder steers right across Queensland. Heifers are trading at a 70c/kg discount in NSW and 90c/kg in Victoria.
Mr Quilty said northern processors would be squeezed as young cattle flow from the southern states to Queensland and older heavier cattle flow to southern processors.
“Last year, Victorian processors bought heavier cattle in Queensland and northern NSW a month earlier than normal due to the lack of cattle in the south.
“This year I expect these Victorian processors to travel north even earlier by late March/early April due to more processor capacity in Victoria and NSW, and further herd liquidation.
“We are about to go into a staggered rebuild phase where prices for heifers go back to a premium if good rain comes to the southern Australia in July. If we don’t get the rain, liquidation will stop, and the herd will hover in a holding pattern for six months.
“The rebuild will start in Queensland, move into northern NSW and by the end of this year and early next year, southern NSW and Victoria will be in a rebuild, resulting in higher prices.
“We are expecting the steer kill to subside over the next six months – add that to the female kill and suddenly supply is getting tight. The higher prices from this rebuild are potentially coming this year and will carry into next year.”
Grinding beef is at record levels of 385 USc/lb and Australian imported prices are tipped to move higher on the back of rocketing domestic prices and Brazilian product becoming uncompetitive due to tariffs.
“Price rises in America on all beef cuts are so beneficial to us – if consumers cannot pay the price for cuts, they go into the 90CL pack (90 per cent lean meat). The higher the 90CL price goes, the less US exports and the more Australia becomes the player in those markets,” Mr Quilty said.
The makeup of Australian feedlots is changing with less Wagyu cattle on feed and mid-fed programs switching to larger short fed programs of 110-120 days.
There is a record number of Australian cattle on feed at 1.45 million head with that forecast to increase to 1.6 million by the end of 2025.
“Flatbacks are playing a huge role in the Japanese market – marble score doesn’t matter anymore, they just want 100-day grain fed cheap beef and flatbacks provide that,” Mr Quilty said.
“There is genuine concern from the major players on how many Angus feeders will be around at the back end of this year. They see shortages with the liquidation and the increased global demand.”
Mr Quilty said the long fed Wagyu market had been challenging with marble score 8-9 falling in the US from US$53/lb in June 2022 to US$28.50/lb in February 2025. Australian Wagyu prices in the US have seen tenderloins fall in value by 33 per cent, ribeyes by 48 per cent and striploins by 57 per cent.
“In the US, Australia Wagyu F1 marble score 3-4 and 4-5 now trade at a discount to Prime, Certified Angus, Choice and just above Select – equating to a 77 per cent fall in price,” he said.
“Wagyu marble score 6-7 plus still sit at a significant premium in the market. Australian Wagyu numbers on feed have come off a peak of 306,000 in 2022 to 275,000 head and at the moment Australian domestic supply is outstripping demand.
“We have unsold Wagyu F1 cattle, poor quality cattle and it will be a year before we start to see some of the old premiums that we are used to. Poor quality Wagyu F1 steers will trend at a discount to Angus.”
Australian Wagyu marble score 4-5 peaked in the US market at AUD$131/kg in April 2022 and is now at AUD$30kg, sitting below Prime, Certified Angus and Choice.
Good quality Australian Wagyu F1 feeder steers reached a high of 1100c/kg liveweight in 2022 and on today’s spot market are 420c/kg liveweight compared to 400c/kg for Angus feeder steers and 355c/kg for flatback feeder steers.